1) Brazil’s mind
Earlier in the tournament Luiz Felipe Scolari had fears for tears. The overwrought emoting of many of his players seemed to be sapping their energy and focus. He hired a psychologist to help them channel their feelings better. Then Neymar got injured and a whole country seemed to be plunged into mourning, with the remaining players left to prepare for the showdown with Germany amid nationwide wailing and prophecies of doom. Even Scolari admitted Neymar’s absence is a “catastrophe”, explaining that the 22-year-old was “the one player we did not want to lose”. The first task facing Brazil, then, is to get their heads in the right place.
2) Replacing Neymar
Brazil’s second task is, of course, to figure out how best to replace their stricken idol. Minus their leader, they need to operate better as a collective. They already made such an improvement in the victory over Colombia, when Neymar’s performance, before his injury, was middling. They will probably need to raise their game still further and Oscar will probably be central to that. If he is moved infield rather than stationed out wide, where he has spent most of his time in this tournament, the Chelsea player has the ability to bind his team together, generating the fluidity that was sometimes hindered by the desire to direct everything through Neymar. The choice as to who would play out wide seems to be between Willian and Bernard and the former looks a shrewder choice. Not only does Willian’s understanding with his club-mate Oscar give him an edge; he has a key weapon to which this Germany team remain vulnerable even after Per Mertesacker was dropped from the centre and Philipp Lahm reverted from midfield to right-back: speed.
3) Strikers with a point to prove
One gets the impression that the next worst thing that could befall Brazil fans after being deprived of Neymar would be for Argentina to go on and win the World Cup at the Maracanã. But it would also be supremely galling if Brazil were prevented from making the final by a goal in their own backyard from Miroslav Klose, who would thereby surpass Ronaldo as the tournament’s all-time leading goalscorer – at a time when Brazil are spearheaded by Fred. If ever a player needed a big performance, it is Fred on Tuesday. A goal or two would be ideal but regularly effective link-play and threatening runs might be acceptable progress.
Mind you, Klose could do with a goal too: his tally of 15 in World Cups does not include any in a semi-final or final, giving a slightly hollow ring to his top-scorer title. At least the 36-year-old should start: Germany looked a far more balanced team against France than they had done in previous matches, thanks in part to Klose being deployed up front and Thomas Müller being allowed to roam free from wider. Müller, of course, needs only two goals to join James Rodríguez at the top of the Golden Boot chart. He could become the first player to win the award in consecutive tournaments. He is 24.
4) Time to see more of the wizardry of Özil
“If Löw is bold, he’ll say: ‘I will not play with only 10 people’” – that is the verdict of the former Bayern Munich left-back Paul Breitner, who has joined the chorus of German voices calling for Mesut Özil to be dropped for the semi-final. “He has just been going for a walk,” said Breitner of the Arsenal player’s performances. It seems, then, that many Germans regard Özil almost as a skinnier, more annoying version of Brazil’s left-winger – less dynamic and explosive than Hulk but just as wasteful. The statistics do not back up that view: Özil has completed more passes in the final third than any other player at the tournament. Özil, then, has exerted an understated influence. But has he done enough to justify his continued inclusion?
His passing may have been tidy but it has seldom been as inventive as it was, say, 18 months ago when he was in top form and before Joachim Löw altered Germany’s formation and shifted his playmaker wide. Löw does not seem inclined to drop the 25-year-old, partly because no player has staked a strong enough claim to replace him, so the manager will need an improved performance from Özil, in both offensive and defensive terms, as Brazil’s full-backs are capable of taking advantage of any German weakness on the wings.
5) The man in the middle
Referees are the subject of an unfair amount of attention in football and no one could reasonably criticise Marco Rodríguez for missing Luis Suárez’s bite when he took charge of the Italy-Uruguay match earlier in the tournament. However, the official will necessarily be under intense scrutiny in the semi-final. First, some of the decisions that have previously gone Brazil’s way in the competition mean that many observers will be looking for proof of impartiality from the Mexican. Secondly, if Brazil attempt to recreate the roughhouse approach that they used against Colombia, Rodríguez will need to keep a lid on things better than Carlos Velasco Carballo did. The tournament can do without losing any more top players and no one wants another match marred by incessant free-kicks, especially not for the wrong offences.
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